The Curious Case of Data and Decision Making in Urban India
Urban centers are the engines that power a nation's economic growth. In India, they're projected to be responsible for 75% of GDP by 2030 (NITI Aayog, 2018). Yet, this potential lies under threat.
Our cities face significant challenges – many of them lack proper planning. The situation is highlighted by the fact that only a small number, just over 2,000, of India's urban areas even have a master plan, a blueprint for development. And only a fraction of those plans have been updated in the last 20 years. (TCPO, 2021)
This lack of planning is a major concern and could hinder India's ability to build strong, sustainable cities in the future. To reach its full potential, India needs a new approach to planning and managing its cities.
In this blog, we dive into the pressing issues that India's urban centers deal with, and the urgent need for smarter planning and management. We then introduce the City AI Engine – our proposed solution to transform how cities collect, analyze, and use data.
What defines a city?
Drawing a clear line around what qualifies as an "urban" area in India is surprisingly tricky. Policymakers are left grappling with a key question: Should they prioritize metropolises, well-established towns, or even the rapidly expanding "census towns" that don't always meet traditional urban definitions?
This simple question has profound consequences. Understanding the true scale and distribution of India's urban population is absolutely critical for crafting effective policies and allocating crucial infrastructure funding. However, this fundamental knowledge has remained elusive.
The 2011 Census offered one data point, reporting that 377 million people, or 31.4% of the population, resided in urban areas. But this picture might be incomplete. Estimates from the World Bank and the Global Settlement Facility (GSF) suggest a significantly higher urbanization rate, potentially as high as 60% according to the GSF.
This vast discrepancy between figures highlights the challenge of defining "urban" in a country as diverse as India.
What’s happening in Indian cities?
A. Legislation and urban governance
A law meant to improve city management in India, the 74th Amendment, has only been partially implemented by states – less than half (42%) of its provisions are actually being used. This law needs an overhaul to give mayors more authority and improve how our cities are governed.
Adding to the problem, over half of India's states and territories lack clear and accessible laws for managing cities.They're still relying on outdated rules, making it difficult to make good decisions for our modern urban environments.
This lack of planning is especially evident in India's capital cities. Nearly 40% don't even have a central development plan, and only a handful (just 9 out of 35) have detailed sector-specific plans (like transportation or housing) that support their main development plans. This is a glaring gap that's holding back our cities.
B. Institutional capacity
The ratio of urban planners to the population in India is considerably low, ranging from 1:500,000 to 1:1,000,000, compared to the recommended ratio of 1:30,000 to 1:50,000. This shortage highlights the need for highly adaptive local governance and administrators to meet the diverse and evolving challenges of urban planning and services.
The situation is also a variable of population, capacity and geographical conditions, for example it is particularly challenging in hill areas such as Uttarakhand and the Northeast, as well as in coastal, forest, and island regions, where urban planning capacity is notably insufficient. This lack of planning capacities and capabilities prevents states and cities from fully leveraging the opportunities associated with urbanisation.
C. Local governance problem
The incomplete implementation of the 74th CAA has resulted in a lack of structured administration and a clear definition of planning and decision-making powers. Mayors and commissioners, who should ideally play key roles in urban planning, have limited influence over master plans.
Instead, decisions are often left to consultants, a practice that may be feasible for larger cities but is insufficient for the approximately 4,000 smaller towns. This gap between legal authority and practical influence creates challenges for effective urban management and development across India. Addressing these issues is essential for fostering sustainable, resilient, and well-governed urban areas.
The interoperability problem: How do decisions trickle down?
Achieving efficient urban development in India requires overcoming a significant obstacle: the lack of interoperability between decision-making bodies. The current system, with its complex administrative structures, fosters siloed departments with limited communication. This results in a cascading series of disjointed actions that hinder project execution.
For example, consider the construction of a new port in a coastal town. The initial decision might originate from either the central or state government. Following this, relevant authorities like the port trust and the state government, often with the assistance of consultants, would conduct surveys to identify the ideal location and secure land. However, project execution soon becomes complex and inefficient.
Multiple departments, each responsible for specific aspects, get involved. The land department handles acquisition, while the roads and buildings department handles road construction and supporting infrastructure. This fragmented approach, where numerous departments manage different facets of a single project, often leads to inefficiencies.
The interoperability problem manifests in two key stages. The first impacts pre-decision activities, hindering effective policy making and planning. The second stage disrupts execution and operation, where coordinated actions and decisions are crucial for efficient project delivery and on-the-ground asset management.
Master plans: The traditional approach
The traditional approach relies on "master plans." These are statutory documents outlining a city's spatial framework for a fixed period (usually 20 years in India). Ideally, these plans consolidate various policy directions, decisions, and objectives into a single document that translates into spatial layouts and land-use regulations. Building codes and bylaws then stem from this blueprint, ensuring everyone adheres to the development vision.
Supporting this master plan are various sectors like environment, infrastructure, housing, and transportation. These sectors identify service capacities and limitations, assess existing infrastructure capabilities, project future needs, and prioritize asset development. Essentially, the plan establishes a framework of subsystems that adapt to population and building dynamics.
But this traditional approach faces limitations. Master plans inherently assume a predictable future, which is rarely the case. Unforeseen population surges or rapid urbanization can render a 20-year plan outdated. Additionally, a significant challenge lies in the sheer number of cities and towns lacking both master plans and qualified planners.
But what about data?
Effective decision-making and urban governance rely heavily on data. Cities generate a wealth of information daily, from departmental interactions to citizen transactions like paying house tax. This data offers valuable insights, such as gauging citizens' willingness to pay or estimating carbon footprints based on electricity consumption.
While some might argue India lacks data, the real challenge lies in its structure, not its quantity.
The challenge lies in harnessing this information. Master plan creation, for instance, often involves contributions from 40-55 departments, depending on the city's size. Unfortunately, a significant portion of this data is unstructured and non-standardized.
Development consultants or planners spend a considerable amount of time liaising with different departments just to collect, clean, and prepare this data before it can be used. This includes information stored in PDFs, Excel sheets, or even scanned photos of existing documents, highlighting the lack of a unified data management system.
Cities are composed of multiple interconnected subsystems such as transportation, health, welfare, finance, and more. Each subsystem interacts with and affects others, creating a dynamic urban environment. When one system fails, it can negatively impact the entire city's development and functioning. To mitigate this, it's crucial to collect, analyze, and disseminate information across all subsystems.
Instead of relying solely on traditional policy and planning methods, we need to rethink how we manage urban data. By developing a system that effectively collects, analyzes, and utilizes data, we can create more cohesive, efficient, and sustainable urban environments. This approach can transform the current disarray into a more organized and productive structure, helping our cities contribute more effectively to the nation's growth.
Exploring an AI solution
We’ve established that urban challenges in India are complex and multifaceted, making traditional methods of management and planning inadequate. This is where we propose an AI solution to streamline urban management – we’re calling this solution The City AI Engine.
Here’s what we’re anticipating that The City AI Engine can accomplish:
Data integration: Combines data from various city departments into one unified platform.
Digital twin creation: Develops a detailed digital version of the city for real-time monitoring and management.
Interactive dashboards: Transforms simple PDFs and data points into interactive, map-based dashboards.
Issue reporting: Allows citizens to report issues like broken footpaths or potholes, which are instantly flagged for action.
Predictive analytics: Enables city officials to forecast future trends and potential problems.
Decision support: Provides data-driven insights to aid in effective decision-making.
Transparency and public engagement: Offers user-friendly visual tools that allow citizens to participate in urban governance.
Efficiency improvements: Enhances collaboration among departments, reducing inefficiencies.
Sustainability focus: Supports the development of more sustainable and resilient urban environments.
We’ll be discussing this solution in more detail as we build it out – if you’re interested in knowing more or helping us build it, here’s how you can be involved: Contact vishnu@peopleplus.ai more information. Read more about The City AI Engine here.
